Alphabet Faces Stock Price Risk as Google Antitrust Trial Nears Decision

Alphabet's stock could plummet by up to 25% as the U.S. government's antitrust case against Google reaches its climax. A federal judge previously ruled the tech giant holds monopolies in online search and search advertising, with remedies expected within months. Barclays analysts warn of catastrophic scenarios, including a forced divestiture of Chrome—a move that could slash earnings per share by over 30%.

The bank's "black swan" scenario envisions Microsoft or even OpenAI acquiring Chrome, which drives 35% of Google's search revenue. Such an outcome remains unpriced by investors, according to Barclays. The judge reportedly called divestiture the "cleanest" remedy, signaling unexpected receptiveness to structural changes.

More probable interventions include mandatory search index licensing or termination of exclusive traffic agreements. Either WOULD erode Google's dominance, though market repercussions remain uncertain. The case represents the most significant regulatory threat to Big Tech since the Microsoft antitrust battles of the 1990s.